Moment of truth for India’s ‘Act East’ diplomacy

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will be arriving in Bangkok in the weekend at a time of political turbulence in Thailand. It is a rare opportunity to see at first-hand how Thailand is coping with what must be the second serious United States attempt at a colour revolution in the Asian region after the abortive one in Hong Kong. What the two events have in common is that both are about regime change aimed at fostering new anti-China ruling elites. In its own way, China squashed the Western agenda in Hong Kong while from all appearances, the Thai ‘breaking mechanism’ is slowly, and steadily emasculating the colour revolution. 

Jaishankar will witness how an Asian country with traditional moorings and entrenched cultural ethos can withstand the Western onslaught, although a much weaker protagonist — and the strange ways in which a US strategic embrace can work. Briefly, a Harvard-educated, 40-something princeling from a wealthy Thai business family, Pita Limjaroenrat whom the US groomed to ride the wave of the colour revolution, is called upon to form a coalition government, but is running into headwinds. This because the Election Commission has approached the country’s constitutional court to decide whether Pita violated rules by holding stakes in a media company when he contested the election. His main hurdle is the old guard’s opposition to his agenda to amend the lese majeste law, or Section 112 of the Thai criminal code, which penalises criticism of the king and other royals.

One may ask, what is there in it for Jaishankar? The answer is, a lot. Such happenings, and even more, are far from uncommon in Indian politics — a political party emerges as the largest entity in an election, but a smaller fry comes from behind to form the government with the backing of the powers that be. However, the outcome of the shadow boxing in Bangkok can be seriously consequential for India, too. In a nutshell, the US count on Pita to move Thailand away from China, and more importantly, reverse the military-dominated Thai policy of cohabitation with the military regime in next-door Myanmar, which of course Washington sees as moving in the orbit of China and Russia.

The heart of the matter is that the Western intelligence agencies based in Thailand have kickstarted a full-fledged guerrilla war against the Myanmar regime by training the cadre, supplying funds and weaponry, and rendering operational advice to the insurgents. This is apart from the seamless political support for creating proximity between the various ethnic minorities and ‘pro-democracy activists’ who are predominantly drawn from the majority Burman community. There is also a religious dimension to it, but more of that later. Now, lately, the guerrilla war seems to be picking up momentum. But it has a serious drawback in not having a sanctuary outside Myanmar’s borders. 

By coincidence or not, the Myanmarese insurgency is gaining traction thanks to the Kuki National Army (KNA), an insurgent group active in Manipur and northwest Myanmar, which was founded in early 1988 with the goal of creating a separate state administered by the Kuki tribes in India and Myanmar. Notionally, the KNA has separated its Indian and Myanmarese wings, but how far that is real no one knows.

In Myanmar, the KNA is most active in the Chin State which is the hotbed of the insurgency against the military regime. What complicates matters for India is that Chin State in Western Myanmar is classic guerrilla country, bordered by Sagaing Division and Magway Division to the east, Rakhine state to the south, the Chittagong Division of Bangladesh to the west and the Indian states of Mizoram to the west and Manipur to the north. Evidently, India makes a great sanctuary for the KNA. 

Meanwhile, a steady refugee flow from Myanmar is adding to the current turmoil in Manipur. What makes things highly sensitive for India is that the Christian countries of the West are increasingly getting involved in Manipur with a strategy to force the Indian authorities to allow the Christian Kuki militants greater political space.

Recently, the US ambassador openly offered mediation between the Kuki and the Meitei communities in Manipur. The agenda is to make Manipur a sanctuary for the KNA to wage the guerrilla war inside Myanmar. The human rights angle is highlighted by the Western media to pressure Indian authorities. 

There is no knowing how far Western intelligence is involved in fuelling the ethnic strife in Manipur, but it cannot be ruled out. An analogous situation that comes to mind is of erstwhile FATA in Pakistan turning into a base for the Pushtun tribes to wage insurgency inside Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation, which eventually morphed into a sanctuary for the Afghan Taliban to fight the Western forces. 

The geopolitical backdrop is as gloomy as in the Cold War era. Myanmar’s descent into chaos suits the Western game plan to encircle and destabilise China to root out Russian influence over Myanmar’s military. If India gets sucked into the Myanmar insurgency, it risks the same experience as Pakistan had. 

The US is destabilising other ASEAN countries neighbouring China — Vietnam, in particular. There have been several attacks on police stations lately in the central highlands of Vietnam attributed to ethnic minorities who have long-standing links to the US intelligence and are pursuing separatism. The Montagnard Human Rights Organisation is a case in point — a ‘cover organisation’ which receives funds from the US. Both in Thailand and in Vietnam, the US strategy is to destabilise these two countries so that even if an outright regime change is not possible, they do not make viable partners for China.

(MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's and do not necessarily reflect the views of DH